The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported on Friday that global food commodity prices decreased in January, primarily due to significant drops in the prices of sugar and vegetable oils.
The FAO Food Price Index, a key indicator of global food commodity prices, experienced a slight decrease in January, averaging 124.9 points compared to 127.0 points in December.
This decline marks a shift from the previous month’s figures, but it’s important to note that the index still remains 6.2% higher than it was a year earlier.
This indicates that while there has been a recent dip, food prices are still elevated compared to the same period last year.
However, despite the year-on-year increase, the current index value is notably lower than the peak reached in March 2022, when it stood at a significantly higher level.
The FAO Food Price Index tracks the international prices of a basket of commonly traded food commodities, providing valuable insights into trends and fluctuations in the global food market.
This information is crucial for policymakers, producers, and consumers alike, as it helps them understand the dynamics of food prices and make informed decisions.
Sugar prices fall sharply
Sugar prices experienced a significant decline due to improved global supply prospects. The decrease was 6.8% from the previous month and 18.5% compared to the previous year.
Favorable weather conditions in Brazil and the resumption of sugar exports from India contributed to the improved supply outlook.
Vegetable oil prices fell 5.6% in January, driven lower by falling global palm and rapeseed oil prices. Soy and sunflower oil prices remained stable.
Despite the monthly decline, the index was up 24.9% from a year earlier.
Cereal prices rose 0.3% from December but were still down 6.9% from January 2024. Maize prices increased due to revised forecasts of lower production and stocks in the US, while wheat export prices declined slightly.
Rice prices dropped by 4.7% due to ample export supplies.
Dairy prices increased by 2.4% compared to the previous month, and 20.4% compared to the previous year. This was driven by a monthly increase in cheese prices, which offset decreases in butter and milk powder prices.
Meanwhile, in January, meat prices decreased by 1.7%.
Cereal production
The FAO has lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2024 to 2.840 billion from 2.841 billion. This revision is mainly attributed to decreased expectations for US maize production.
The winter wheat planting season in the northern hemisphere ended in January. France, Germany, and the UK increased their sowings, but Russia saw a decline due to weather.
The start of maize harvests in the southern hemisphere is expected in the second quarter. Argentina and Brazil are expected to have improved yields, while South Africa has increased plantings due to high maize prices.
The FAO has raised its forecast for world cereal utilisation in 2024-25 by 0.9% to 2.869 billion tons. A decline of 2.2% in global cereal stocks is expected by the close of seasons in 2025, due to the contraction in US maize stocks.
A contraction of 5.6% is expected for international trade in cereals in 2024-25 compared to the previous year, decreasing to 483.5 million tons. This is mainly due to lower demand from China for barley, maize, and wheat, FAO said.
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